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money:timing [2020/03/15 20:13]
admin [Market Timing]
money:timing [2020/08/10 09:53]
admin [Market Timing]
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 | July 2019 | 50/50 | Greater Fool had some worrying posts, inverted yield curve, seemed imminently downward | Keep a weekly email on S&P 500 value? Didn't have a exit point if I made the wrong decision and missed a big rally | | July 2019 | 50/50 | Greater Fool had some worrying posts, inverted yield curve, seemed imminently downward | Keep a weekly email on S&P 500 value? Didn't have a exit point if I made the wrong decision and missed a big rally |
 | January 2020 | 95/5 | Missed a rally, Greater Fool says 2020 won't be super big, but a positive one. \\ Plan on rebalancing at opportune times | | | January 2020 | 95/5 | Missed a rally, Greater Fool says 2020 won't be super big, but a positive one. \\ Plan on rebalancing at opportune times | |
-| March 2020 | 95/5 | Lots of losses due to Coronavirus. Poor timing, but nobody saw this coming either! \\ Rebalanced treasuries in 401k to stocks |+| March 2020 | 95/5 | Lots of losses due to Coronavirus. Poor timing, but nobody saw this coming either! \\ Rebalanced treasuries in 401k to stocks \\ Quoting funds that sold off early because they are volatility funds is quite cherry picking, WSJ | Would recommend diversifying into "good" brands that are selling off because of index fund liquidation?
 +| August 2020 | 100? | Don't really want treasuries since fed rate is near zero. | |
  
 ** Need to keep new stocks in tax shielded accounts and bonds in taxable accounts ** ** Need to keep new stocks in tax shielded accounts and bonds in taxable accounts **
  
 +
 +===== Dividend Capture =====
 +Root question started with "When should I sell my RSUs?". Should I wait until before or after the dividend? Basically same question of "is a dividend capture strategy profitable?" (buy a stock a few days before ex-dividend date and then selling afterwards). 
 +
 +[[g>dividend capture strategy backtest]] has some ok articles. Quantopian seems to have a nice backtest, not sure what it looks like going forward though. https://www.quantopian.com/posts/a-carry-strategy-with-portfolio-optimization
 +
 +Probably a good case of TAANSTAFL. Just diversify and forget about it.
  
  
money/timing.txt · Last modified: 2020/08/10 09:53 by admin