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money:timing [2020/01/26 21:10]
admin
money:timing [2020/08/10 09:53]
admin [Market Timing]
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 ===== Market Timing ===== ===== Market Timing =====
 +<blockquote>Memory whitewashes mistakes, too. Mark Armbruster of Armbruster Capital Management in Pittsford, N.Y., says one client insisted on putting 40% of a $5 million portfolio into a single hedge fund. Alarmed by the fund's risk, Mr. Armbruster badgered the client into selling. Shortly thereafter, the fund collapsed. The client narrowly missed losing $2 million.
 +
 +In a subsequent conversation, Mr. Armbruster says, the investor had no recollection of what had happened. "The whole episode had been blotted out from memory," Mr. Armbruster says.
 +
 +Because memory is so malleable, Joachim Klement, chief investment officer at Wellershoff & Partners, a consulting firm in Zurich, urges his clients to keep an investment diary, creating a record of their buying and selling decisions and the reasons behind them. "You can mitigate the flaws of memory by writing events down as they happen," he says.
 +
 +You shouldn't trust your recollections of how you felt in 2008 and 2009. Instead, ask your spouse or a close friend how afraid you were, and look at your old account statements to see whether you sold at the bottom. The best guide to how you will act in the next market downturn is how you did act in the last one.
 +</blockquote>
 +  * Jason Zweig. {{ :money:the_intelligent_investor_you_re_not_as_good_an_investor_as_you_think_you_are_-_wsj.pdf |}}
  
 ^ Date ^ AA Decision ^ Justification ^ Learning ^ ^ Date ^ AA Decision ^ Justification ^ Learning ^
 | July 2019 | 50/50 | Greater Fool had some worrying posts, inverted yield curve, seemed imminently downward | Keep a weekly email on S&P 500 value? Didn't have a exit point if I made the wrong decision and missed a big rally | | July 2019 | 50/50 | Greater Fool had some worrying posts, inverted yield curve, seemed imminently downward | Keep a weekly email on S&P 500 value? Didn't have a exit point if I made the wrong decision and missed a big rally |
 | January 2020 | 95/5 | Missed a rally, Greater Fool says 2020 won't be super big, but a positive one. \\ Plan on rebalancing at opportune times | | | January 2020 | 95/5 | Missed a rally, Greater Fool says 2020 won't be super big, but a positive one. \\ Plan on rebalancing at opportune times | |
 +| March 2020 | 95/5 | Lots of losses due to Coronavirus. Poor timing, but nobody saw this coming either! \\ Rebalanced treasuries in 401k to stocks \\ Quoting funds that sold off early because they are volatility funds is quite cherry picking, WSJ | Would recommend diversifying into "good" brands that are selling off because of index fund liquidation? |
 +| August 2020 | 100? | Don't really want treasuries since fed rate is near zero. | |
  
 ** Need to keep new stocks in tax shielded accounts and bonds in taxable accounts ** ** Need to keep new stocks in tax shielded accounts and bonds in taxable accounts **
  
 +
 +===== Dividend Capture =====
 +Root question started with "When should I sell my RSUs?". Should I wait until before or after the dividend? Basically same question of "is a dividend capture strategy profitable?" (buy a stock a few days before ex-dividend date and then selling afterwards). 
 +
 +[[g>dividend capture strategy backtest]] has some ok articles. Quantopian seems to have a nice backtest, not sure what it looks like going forward though. https://www.quantopian.com/posts/a-carry-strategy-with-portfolio-optimization
 +
 +Probably a good case of TAANSTAFL. Just diversify and forget about it.
  
  
money/timing.txt · Last modified: 2020/08/10 09:53 by admin